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Non-farm payrolls preview

Consensus estimate: 490,000 jobs added in March…

After last month’s strong beat (678,000 versus 400,000 expected), market expectations have tempered for March…

Consensus estimates indicate that job growth is likely to top 490,000 with the unemployment rate falling to at least 3.7%.

A key focus will be on average hourly earnings and whether the surprisingly soft February print (+5.1% YoY, 0% MoM) was a blip or an early signal.

Market expectations are for average hourly earnings to have increased 5.7% YoY and 0.4% MoM – higher than last month, but still lagging high levels of inflation.

On the price charts, the dollar index (DXY) has held its ground near two-year highs following a strong surge in US government bond yields.

While the S&P 500 has rallied from its early-March lows on increased optimism that the Fed can combat high inflation and Ukraine and Russia can reach a diplomatic solution without requiring military action from NATO.

S&P 500 Index Daily Candle Chart