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6th Aug 2021. 11.19am

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Non-farm payrolls preview

Consensus estimate: 870,000 jobs added in July

After June’s market-beating set of payrolls, traders will be waiting to see whether today’s July number can maintain the momentum…

Consensus analyst estimates indicate that 870,000 new jobs were created by the US economy in July, up from the 850,000 gained in June and well up from the revised 583,000 added in May.

The jobless rate is also expected to improve with estimates of 5.7% versus 5.9% in June.

However, there are concerns that rising case numbers of the Delta variant throughout certain US states will hamper the recovery. There is also the ongoing threat of high inflation, which has been partially driven by increasing wages. Average hourly earnings rose 3.6% in June year-on-year and this number is expected to rise again for July to 3.8%.

The S&P 500’s recent price action has been very bullish, with trendlines steepening and the market consolidating above its broken mid-July highs – forming a small range or ‘bullish consolidation box’.

US Non-farm payrolls data is released at 1.30pm (UK time)

S&P 500 Rolling Futures Daily Candle Chart

S&P 500 Rolling Futures Daily Candle Chart


This research is prepared for general information only and should not be construed as any form of investment advice.