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Non-farm payrolls preview

Consensus estimate: 700,000 jobs added in June

After the last two US monthly jobs reports came in well below expectations, investors will be looking for evidence that the US economic recovery isn’t built on sand…

Analysts are certainly more optimistic for June, economists polled by Bloomberg forecast today’s non-farm payrolls (1.30pm UK time) will show that the US economy added 700,000 jobs in June – well above the 559,000 jobs created in May and far above April’s 278,000 figure.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on average hourly earnings (expected to rise 3.6% from a year ago) – a higher than expected number could see inflationary fears return.

With the S&P 500 having put in six consecutive sessions of record highs heading into today’s jobs report, there’s plenty of scope for disappointment.

Should we see a pullback, then a move down into the broken resistance / new trend support area at 4,265 – 4,245 could represent an attractive entry point into the S&P’s long-term uptrend.

S&P 500 Rolling Futures Daily Candle Chart